There have been rising concerns about the stability and durability of the U.S. electricity grid. However, with vast growth in U.S. renewable energy capacity in recent years and the rapidly increasing electricity demand across the country, improvements are needed imminently.
Whether it’s green energy or fossil fuels, both the Biden and the Trump administrations have been clear in their plans to make the U.S. a dominant global energy power and ensure the future of the country’s energy security. However, to achieve this, it will require more than just expansion of U.S. renewable energy capacity or a boost in fossil fuel output. The U.S. is in dire need of a massive overhaul of its transmission network to prepare the country for a huge influx of energy in the coming years.
How Does the U.S. Grid Work?
The U.S. grid consists of a vast network of power plants, transmission lines, and distribution centers. It must constantly balance supply and demand, ensuring it transports the correct amount of electricity to households, businesses, and industry, day and night.
The U.S. transmission system is highly fragmented with different states and regions responsible for various parts of the infrastructure. The U.S. is home to around 3,000 utility companies that all run their systems differently and focus on varying energy projects, from wind and solar to nuclear power or oil and gas.
At present, the federal government is unable to carry out the necessary modernization of the U.S. transmission system due to the grid’s fractured nature. Infrastructure investments are managed by a multitude of local, state, and regional regulators, with varying ideas and budgets, making it impossible to overhaul the whole system.
Key to U.S. Energy Dominance
While a complete overhaul may be impossible, grid modernization is what is needed to ensure U.S. energy dominance. To guarantee its competitiveness in the race to develop complex technologies, such as AI, the U.S. must be able to deliver vast amounts of energy to various locations across the country using a resilient transmission system.
U.S. electricity demand is expected to continue increasing, by 128 GW over the next five years, or five times more than projected just two years ago. Meanwhile, developing new transmission lines is expected to reduce household electricity bills by over $300 a year based on current electricity consumption levels.
Slow Progress and a Backlog
In 2024, the Department of Energy (DoE) Office of Policy launched a report entitled “Queued Up… But in Need of Transmission.” The publication focuses on the vast amount of energy projects that are ready to be connected to the grid but are being made to wait because of the backlog.
In recent years, there has been a growing gridlock of, mainly renewable energy, projects waiting to be connected to the grid. Many of these projects are being developed in non-conventional energy-producing regions of the U.S., such as rural areas, where the transmission lines are not adequately developed for new connections. Connecting the massive quantity of energy expected to come online over the next decade will require a huge federal investment in the modernization of the country’s grid.
The report highlighted that the U.S. may need to expand transmission systems by 60% by 2030 and perhaps triple those systems by 2050. It is worth noting that the projected energy demand during this period has risen further since the publication of the report.
The Potential for a National Grid
Despite the complications in overhauling the U.S. grid system, there could be significant benefits in developing a national grid.
Gregory Wetstone, the CEO of the non-profit American Council on Renewable Energy, stated, “The system we have for planning and paying for new transmission does not adequately value or promote the vital benefits of interregional transmission. Transmission planning does not sufficiently take into account the benefits of a holistic system over the long term.”
He explained that the regulatory framework that has evolved at the regional level does not function when it comes to planning longer, larger-scale transmission lines. However, using longer more efficient lines would help decarbonize the grid system and reduce consumer energy costs. In addition, establishing national regulations and standards could help to build a system that is resilient to severe weather, such as floods, freezes, and fires.
This led to DoE to complete the National Transmission Planning Study in 2024 under the Biden administration, in a bid to understand the potential for improving the grid at the national level. The study can now be used by utilities and grid planners to identify projects for possible development, according to the director of DoE’s Grid Deployment Office Maria Robinson. It is essentially a toolkit for each region rather than a comprehensive federal strategy for grid modernization.
The fragmented nature of the U.S. transmission system means that it is highly unlikely there will be a complete overhaul of the grid, as would be done in an ideal scenario. It also means that grid modernization will likely be more costly and time-consuming than it would be under a federal-level transformation. However, the DoE’s National Transmission Planning Study helps in providing guidance for state and regional level actors to begin to update the grid. Nevertheless, a meaningful transformation of the U.S. transmission system will require both billions of dollars in investment and the collaboration of thousands of state and local actors to collectively modernize the grid.
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