The aging coal plants across the U.S. pose a significant risk to grid reliability as their forced outage rates continue to rise. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) unveiled its 2024 State of Reliability Report, noting that the forced outage rate at conventional and wind facilities maintained a historical high. These high levels followed a peak in 2021 and 2022, meaning the continued high rates could threaten grid stability.
In 2023, American energy production reached a 7.8% weighted equivalent forced average rate (WEFOR), a historic high, despite no supply–disrupting weather events that year.
Rising Coal Outage Rates Pose Constant Concern
Despite holding a 10% WEFOR between 2014 and 2022, coal-based power plants forced outages to increase to 12% in 2023. While the 2% rise may seem like an insignificant number, it represents a dramatic rise when compared to the average of the previous eight years.
When compared to other units, which have remained within a percentile over the same period, coal’s 25% difference in WEFOR rate is a big deal. If the increase was a stand-alone anomaly, it could be attributed to extenuating circumstances, such as major weather catastrophes or disasters. However, the continued rise is indicative of an ongoing upward trajectory.
Coal’s steady outage rate increase follows a growing trend of older coal facilities receiving few updates or maintenance as they age. Naturally, the facilities would receive less attention as coal units are phased out with the energy transition. While the world moves away from coal and other fossil fuels, coal facilities are lowered in priority, leading to greater inefficiency.
Wind and Renewable Power Generation Also See Rising Outages
Unfortunately, coal is not the only energy source that realized a forced outage rate in the past year. According to NERC’s report, wind generation’s forced-outage rate increased from 18.1% in 2022 to 18.9% in 2023. While it’s not an exact comparison to the WEFOR scale used in conventional energy source generation performance, wind power’s continued increase in forced outage rating is a growing concern.
Surprisingly, NERC’s report also found that inverter-based units carried potential ride-through issues, causing solar, wind, or battery generation to trip and supply lower outputs than usual. Unexpected output loss at solar or battery generation occurred in multiple incidents throughout 2022 and 2023, leading to system stability challenges, notes the NERC report.
Not All Bad News
Still, the report contained a few glimmers of hope, apart from the aging coal systems and the threat to grid stability. The upside is that progress has been made to address the issues in 2023. As power plant owners become more involved in identifying and correcting the primary problems, existing issues and potential pitfalls could be diminished within the next few years.
As technology progresses, identifying problems in energy software and equipment becomes more easily attainable. Ideally, the forced-outage rates will decrease as innovators and movers focus more on renewable energy sources, making the transition closer and smoother.
Additionally, the power grid demonstrated astounding reliability and resilience, with no firm load shedding. Although there were undoubtedly issues and unforeseen weather-related outages, most sectors saw quick restorations and returns to operating status.
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